SUMMARY: Most healthcare organizations try to forecast staffing needs. Very few trust their forecasts. And almost none see the results they expect. This post explores why forecasting fails so often — and what healthcare organizations can do to finally get ahead of their staffing needs.
It's Not Because Leaders Don't Care.
It’s also not because teams don’t understand their operations. It’s because healthcare forecasting is uniquely hard — and most systems weren’t built to reflect the realities leaders navigate every day.
But forecasting isn’t optional anymore. Rising labor costs, fluctuating volumes, provider shortages, and the increasing use of external labor all demand a clearer view of what’s coming next.
1. Historical Data Doesn’t Match Today’s Realities
Many organizations base their forecasts on the last 12–24 months of schedules or volumes. But recent years in healthcare have been anything but predictable. Past data fails when:
- Provider turnover is higher than usual
- External labor fluctuates
- Seasonal patterns shift
- Clinics add or close locations
- Budgets tighten mid-year
- Agencies become harder to navigate
- Unexpected demand spikes occur
Forecasting only works when you understand why the past looked the way it did — not just what happened.
2. Staffing Data Is Scattered Across Too Many Systems
Accurate forecasting requires one complete view of:
- Internal capacity
- External staffing usage
- Credentialing timelines
- Provider availability
- Outreach and onboarding pipelines
- Volume trends
- Budget constraints
- Coverage gaps
- Vendor performance
But in most organizations, this information lives in:
- Scheduling tools
- Spreadsheets
- Email threads
- Agency portals
- HR systems
- Finance reports
- Credentialing platforms
When you forecast in fragments, you plan in fragments.
3. Teams Interpret the Same Data Differently
Finance reads data through the lens of cost. Operations reads it through the lens of coverage. Clinical leaders read it through the lens of stability. Staffing teams read it through the lens of immediacy. Each view is valid — but disconnected.
When teams use different definitions of “utilization,” “vacancy,” “coverage,” “capacity,” or even “staffing need,” forecasting becomes a negotiation instead of a plan. Forecasting fails when the language isn’t shared.
4. Forecasting Tools Don’t Capture Real-World Complexity
Most forecasting models assume:
- Predictable scheduling patterns
- Even provider availability
- Fixed patient demand
- Consistent credentialing timelines
- Linear onboarding processes
- No unexpected departures
Healthcare doesn’t work like that. Forecasting fails when tools expect stability in an environment that’s anything but stable.
5. Forecasts Don’t Drive Operational Action
A forecast is only useful if it changes what leaders do next. Too often:
- Forecasts live in a slide deck
- Teams see them once a quarter
- Staffing decisions still happen in real time
- Finance updates budgets reactively
- Providers feel the effects of instability long before leadership sees them
Forecasting isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about preparing for it. Forecasting fails when it’s theoretical instead of operational.
6. Forecasts Don’t Include the True Cost of Staffing Decisions
Most forecasts look at volume, not cost. But in today’s environment, a forecast that doesn’t include:
- Locum rates
- Internal vs. external mix
- Utilization impact
- Overtime trends
- Credentialing delays
- Agency reliability
Forecasting fails when it ignores the financial side of staffing reality.
How Healthcare Organizations Can Finally Get Forecasting Right
A forecasting model doesn’t need to be perfect. It needs to be connected, contextual, and actionable.
Here’s what that looks like:
1. Integrate Data From All Workforce Systems
Bring scheduling, spend, credentialing, utilization, agency activity, and performance into one connected view.
- One truth → better decisions.
- Better decisions → better predictability.
2. Use Real-Time Signals, Not Just Historical Averages
Look for:
- Coverage gaps
- Spend anomalies
- Rising overtime
- Shifts trending toward locums
- Provider burnout indicators
- Onboarding delays
Forecasting should be a live, ongoing conversation, but not an annual project.
3. Standardize the Definitions That Drive Your Model
Agree on:
- How you measure utilization
- What counts as capacity
- How you define availability
- When a shift is considered “critical”
- What qualifies as overuse of external labor
Shared definitions create shared expectations.
4. Give Leaders Tools That Reflect Actual Clinical and Operational Workflow
The model should match how the organization functions:
- Unpredictable volumes
- Last-minute changes
- Multiple provider types
- Multi-site schedules
- Agency variability
Forecasts should adapt to real-world complexity and not the other way around.
5. Tie Forecasting Directly to Action Plans
A forecast should answer:
- What do we need to do differently next month?
- Where can internal capacity be rebalanced?
- Where will spend spike if nothing changes?
- What onboarding needs to happen now?
- Which specialties need attention first?
Forecasts without action are noise. Forecasts with action are strategy.
How Kimedics Helps Organizations Forecast With Confidence
Kimedics brings Total Staffing Intelligence to forecasting by connecting:
- Internal and external staffing
- Cost data and coverage data
- Credentialing and scheduling
- Utilization and vendor performance
- Financial planning and operational planning
With Kimedics, leaders can:
- Anticipate staffing needs
- Rebalance internal workloads
- Forecast spend before overages occur
- Understand the true cost of clinical coverage
- Reduce reliance on locums through better planning
- Make decisions proactively instead of defensively
Forecasting doesn’t need to be perfect. It needs to be grounded in reality and connected to the decisions leaders make every day.
That’s what Kimedics was built for.
Forecast With Confidence. Plan With Clarity.
- When forecasting is connected to reality, it stops being a guess and starts being a guide.
- The more clearly you see your workforce, the more confidently you can plan for what comes next.
Ready to forecast staffing with more confidence?
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Learn more about Kimedics
Kimedics is a provider utilization management solution. We help healthcare organizations reduce scheduling complexity. For more information, book a demo or email kimedics@kimedics.com